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Expected Goals (xG) Calculator

Estimate the expected goals (xG) value of a shot from its distance, angle and situation — and total xG for a match.

Expected Goals (xG) Calculator

Expected goals (xG) is a football metric that measures the quality of a chance by estimating how likely an average player is to score it. An xG of 0.75 means a chance would be scored about 75% of the time; a long-range effort might be worth just 0.03. Adding up the xG of every shot gives a fairer picture of a match than the final score, because it reflects the chances created rather than the luck of finishing.

This calculator estimates a shot's xG from the factors that matter most: distance to goal, shooting angle, body part (foot or header) and the situation (open play, a one-on-one, a set piece, or a penalty — penalties are worth about 0.76 xG). It uses a simplified distance-decay model similar in spirit to professional xG models, so it is a great teaching and discussion tool rather than an exact replica of any single provider. You can calculate individual shots and add them to a running match total to compare two teams' xG. Everything runs in your browser, free and with no sign-up.

Frequently asked questions

xG measures the quality of a chance — the probability an average player scores it, from 0 to 1. Summing the xG of all shots estimates how many goals a team 'should' have scored.

Models use factors like distance to goal, angle, body part and the type of chance. This tool combines those with a distance-decay formula to estimate each shot's xG. A penalty is worth around 0.76.

No. Professional models are trained on hundreds of thousands of shots and use many more inputs. This is a simplified, educational estimate that behaves similarly but will not match any provider exactly.

Above ~0.35 is a big chance, 0.15–0.35 is a decent chance, and below 0.06 is a low-quality, speculative effort. Penalties are among the highest at about 0.76.

Yes, it is free, needs no sign-up, and runs entirely in your browser.