Football Score Predictor
Enter each team's expected goals and get the most likely scoreline plus win, draw and loss probabilities.
Football Score Predictor
A football score predictor estimates the most likely result of a match from how many goals each team is expected to score. This tool uses the Poisson distribution, the statistical model bookmakers and analysts widely use for football, because goals are relatively rare, independent events that fit the Poisson pattern well.
You enter each team's expected goals — their attacking strength for this match, often based on recent average goals scored adjusted for the opponent. The calculator then works out the probability of every scoreline up to 8-8, adds them up, and returns the single most likely score plus the chances of a home win, draw and away win, and a list of the top scorelines. For example, expected goals of 1.6 versus 1.1 typically makes a 1-0 or 1-1 most likely with the home team favoured. It is a great way to understand match odds, run a prediction league, or settle a debate before kick-off. Remember it is a probability model, not a crystal ball — football's randomness is exactly why we watch. It runs instantly in your browser, free and with no sign-up.